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What’s the Weather Like at Burning Man? See the Current Conditions in Gerlach and Watch Your Friends Drive To Burning Man!

August 31, 2009

Watch the traffic crawl through Gerlach; you just might see us drive by in our 90 Westfalia VW van Baby Beluga with bikes on the back, a carpet with PVC pipe inside rolled on the roof, and a black box filed with other fun camp goodies including our banners, some body paintings, and a polka dot parachute! See what the weather’s like too! Blackrockdesert.org. Be sure to click “animate.”

Also from that site, the weather forecast for the week indicates it’s going to be a bit warmer than average with the temps increasing during the week. Here’s the details:

 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
 352 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2009

 .SHORT TERM...
 SPREAD ISOLATED CONVECTION NORTH TO NEAR HIGHWAY 50 AND INCREASED
 HIGHS SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE ONLY SMALL DETAIL CHANGES TO
 SHORT TERM GRIDS. 

 A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
 SWING BY TO THE WEST TODAY. THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER EFFECT FROM
 THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE TO INCREASE MID LEVEL MOISTURE (WHICH WILL
 MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY LATE AFTERNOON) AND HELP TO KICK IN
 GUSTY SW-W WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND FAR
 WESTERN NEVADA. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
 DETAILS OF HUMIDITIES AND WINDS FOR TODAY. 

 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
 WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE CWA. THIS WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS AS
 COMPARED WITH MONDAY. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW INSTABILITY/ISOLATED
 STORMS TO BUILD OVER MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES TUESDAY...WHICH IS
 NOW PROJECTED TO SPREAD NORTH TO ALPINE COUNTY AND THE PINE NUTS
 EAST OF CARSON CITY ON WEDNESDAY. 

 THE 21Z/03Z SREF THUNDERSTORM AND PRECIP FIELDS BACK UP THE
 GFS/NAM MODEL PROGS WELL WITH THE IDEA OF BUILDING CONVECTION
 FURTHER NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LAPSE
 RATES ARE RATHER POOR WEDNESDAY...SO ANY STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
 ISOLATED. I THREW IN SHOWERS WITH STORMS BY WEDNESDAY...AS SREF
 PROGS SHOW A SOLID CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP NEAR THE SIERRA
 SOUTH OF TAHOE AND THE MEAN PWAT IN THE SREF IS AROUND .75" BY
 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

 TEMPERATURE-WISE...HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
 AVERAGE TODAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE RISING TO AROUND 4-8 DEGREES
 ABOVE AVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE ENHANCES ITS GRIP ON
 THE CWA. SNYDER 

 .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
 LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH EACH
 REGARDING THE OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST BUT DIFFERENCES REMAIN
 IN THE DETAILS. AND THESE DIFFERENCES WILL KEEP CONFIDENCE FAIRLY
 LOW IN FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MAINLY AS IT RELATES TO TEMPS
 AND ANY POSSIBLY PCPN. THUS HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GOING
 FORECAST THIS CYCLE.

 MODELS START THURSDAY DEPICTING A TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW BUT
 TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES BEGIN TO SHOW UP FAIRLY SOON IN THE
 FORECAST. INITIALLY ECMWF IS A BIT DEEPER WITH THIS TROF BUT STILL
 KEEPS BULK OF THE ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE RGN. OPERATIONAL
 GFS...AND MANY OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE STARTED TO TREND TOWARD
 THE ECMWF FOR THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. CANADIAN IS STILL A BIT
 MORE PROGRESSIVE...BUT ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF
 SPREAD BY SATURDAY...WITH A COUPLE OF MEMBERS DEVELOPING A CUT OFF
 LOW OVER CA/OR. ONE LONE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER ALSO DEPICTS THIS CUT
 OFF LOW. 

 BY EARLY SATURDAY THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ABOUT HALF OF ITS ENSEMBLE
 MEMBERS DEVELOP A SHARPER TROF STRETCHING FROM WRN OREGON INTO NRN
 CA. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF IS A NOT AS SHARP AND A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS
 NEXT TROF. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER COMMON THE PAST TWO
 DAYS. THE ONLY CHANGE THIS WOULD SIGNAL TO ME WOULD BE A SLIGHT
 WARMING OF TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AS GFS HAS SLOWED JUST A BIT. BY
 SATURDAY THE GFS DROPS HEIGHTS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS
 RUNS...SO POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS THEN AS
 WELL. CONTINUED MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NRN
 CWA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH FORECAST MODELS
 ARE SLOW TO BRING MUCH MSTR INTO THE RGN. 

 SUNDAY BECOMES PROBLEMATIC AS WELL WITH OPERATIONAL GFS AND MANY OF
 ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SLIDING THE MAIN TROF EAST INTO ERN OREGON WITH
 ITS BEST DYNAMICS WELL NORTH OF THE RGN AND A FLATTER LOOK TO THE
 TROF OVER OUR RGN...BUT WITH LOWER HEIGHTS OVERALL THAN THE ECMWF.
 MEANWHILE ECMWF IS A BIT SHARPER WITH THE TROF BY SUNDAY...MORE LIKE
 THE GFS DEPICTION ON SATURDAY...AND SOME LOWERING OF HEIGHTS. AGAIN
 GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MUCH OF
 SUNDAY AS IS. MLF
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